There is a 95% probability – a virtual certainty – that this year will surpass the global temperature record set in 2023. Every month from January to June has been the hottest on record, extending the streak of consecutive record-breaking hot months to 13.
Even if the second half of the year does not maintain this trend, the weakening of El Niño and the likely onset of La Niña in late autumn will almost certainly make 2024 the year with the most significant thermal anomaly ever recorded. This conclusion comes from an analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather for Carbon Brief, based on data from the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 system.
Currently, global warming in 2024 is tracking at a level above +1.6°C, while 2023 ended, according to Copernicus, with a thermal anomaly of +1.48°C. The second half of the year will likely reduce the 2024 value: starting in July, the consecutive streak of record-breaking hot months set last year is expected to come to an end.
As a result, 2023 and 2024 will remain outliers, significantly warmer than any previous year. Specifically, Hausfather’s projections estimate a median global warming value for 2024 of +1.57°C, with the lower end of the range approaching the 2023 figure. It will therefore be a record year, “even if – as the projection implicitly assumes – the remaining months of 2024 are below the records set in 2023.”
“Since the first six months of the year were so hot, about 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels, the second half of the year would need to be relatively cool (below 1.3°C) for the overall year not to surpass 2023,” the scientist notes. This forecast significantly revises upward the one made in December 2023 by the UK’s MET Office, which estimated the average global temperature for 2024 to be between +1.34°C and +1.58°C, with a central estimate of +1.46°C, essentially in line with the 2023 figure.
It is therefore likely that we are experiencing the first calendar year with an average temperature above 1.5°C. (If we consider the last 12 months, from July 2023 to June 2024, the average has reached +1.64°C). However, this does not mean that we have exceeded the threshold set by the Paris Agreement, which is based on the 30-year global average temperature, not year-to-year fluctuations.
